How do I account for a dependency I cannot control when comparing options?

Separate the option from the outside condition

Start with two statements: “This option fits because …” and “This option works only if …”. The first describes the option itself. The second exposes the dependency. Keeping them separate prevents an attractive option from looking fully ready when a required condition is unresolved, and prevents an uncertain dependency from erasing the option's underlying value.

The 2026 Green Book defines dependencies as external factors on which an option relies for success but which are beyond its direct control. Its business-case guidance distinguishes them from constraints, which set conditions or limits on delivery. For a personal comparison, a required licence or fixed deadline may be a constraint; another person's availability, a place opening, or a service becoming available may be a dependency.

Use the RELAY dependency card

RELAY is a Forever Free Compass framework, not an external research finding. Complete one card for each dependency that could materially change whether an option is feasible or timely.

1. Requirement: write the exact outside condition and mark whether it is required or merely helpful.
2. External controller: name the person, organisation, resource, event, or rule that controls the condition; do not assign that role to yourself if you do not have it.
3. Latest useful confirmation: name when confirmation would still leave enough time to act without forcing or rushing the controller.
4. Alternative path: identify a smaller route, different sequence, pause, or other option that does not require the same condition.
5. Your trigger: write what you will do if the condition is confirmed, still unknown, delayed, or unavailable at the decision point.

Compare dependency states instead of guessing one probability

Use the same criteria for every option, but show how the dependency changes feasibility, timing, cost, reversibility, or the next action. If you have credible evidence for likelihood, record its source and limits. If you do not, use plain states rather than a precise percentage that only looks analytical.

The Orange Book recommends examining varying scenarios, the basis of assumptions, dependencies, and relationships among risks during option appraisal. It also says risks should be considered even when their source is outside direct control. The personal adaptation is a small scenario table, not a formal risk model.

Keep control with the actual controller

If the dependency is another person's agreement, time, work, or information, record only what they have actually confirmed. Interest is not a promise, silence is not consent, and your preferred deadline does not create an obligation for them. You can choose your request, boundary, waiting period, and fallback; you cannot convert their decision into your task.

The Orange Book places responsibility for managing risks with those best able to control them and calls for clear roles, current information, monitoring, and escalation. The Magenta Book asks evaluators to examine how context and external factors influenced delivery and outcomes. RELAY adapts that visibility without borrowing authority over someone else's choice.

Set a trigger that changes your action

A useful confirmation point changes what you will do. “Check again later” is not yet a trigger. Write a date or observable event and a response: “If the place is not confirmed by Friday, I will reserve the smaller available option,” or “If permission is not granted, I will not proceed.” Keep the wording factual and reversible where possible.

Current business-case guidance recommends identifying risks, constraints, and dependencies, assigning owners for monitoring and mitigation, and maintaining current information. It also describes a RAID log for risks, assumptions, issues, and dependencies. A RELAY card is deliberately smaller: one condition, one confirmation point, and one response.

Know when a simple card is not enough

Use RELAY only for a low-stakes comparison. Do not use it to bypass consent, legal or workplace requirements, safety controls, contractual obligations, formal risk assessment, or another person's authority. A fallback is not acceptable merely because it is available; it still has to respect the same boundaries and requirements as the original option.

If the dependency affects health, safety, rights, significant money, employment, housing, or another high-consequence area, use the required process or qualified guidance. The honest result may be that the option cannot be treated as currently feasible.